US Stocks Set for Mixed Open? Polymarket Bets Lean Bearish

US stock index futures were slightly mixed in early Friday trading, as investors digested the expanding AI spending boom and escalating rhetoric in the economic war against Iran.

Polymarket participants are divided, leaning slightly bearish for the August 28 trading session. The platform's "S&P 500 Up or Down on Aug 28" contract currently shows a 47% probability of a higher open.

Why This Number Matters

Traders are weighing strong tech fundamentals, volatile geopolitical warnings, and upcoming consumer confidence data:

Mixed index futures: Stock index futures point to a mixed open. Dow Jones futures rose 0.07%, and Russell 2000 futures gained 0.04%. Conversely, S&P 500 futures fell 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.30%.

Geopolitics and Energy: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent escalated his "economic D-Day" campaign, accusing Iran's "corrupt regime" of funneling billions of dollars to overseas terrorist proxies while its people struggle. As economic pressure mounts, the Iranian rial hit an all-time low of about 1.37 million per US dollar, and Iran's August oil shipments plunged to 248,000 barrels per day. Despite the tensions, oil prices fell; Brent crude futures declined 0.28% to $88.27 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.47% to $83.14 per barrel.

Economic Data and Earnings: Investors are awaiting the August Chicago PMI data at 9:45 AM ET, followed by the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10:00 AM ET. Friday's earnings calendar is relatively light, featuring reports from Frontline Plc, BW LPG Limited, and Chagee Holdings Limited.

Bullish Case and Market Outlook

Market confidence in the tech sector remains strong as the AI spending boom continues to spread through the broader economy. According to analysis by Ed Yardeni and Elias Griepentrog, Nvidia Corp.'s recent second-quarter earnings show demand expanding from hyperscale tech companies to AI-native startups and traditional enterprise IT. Non-hyperscaler cloud revenue surged 138% year-over-year, outpacing hyperscaler growth.

Yardeni noted that "AI infrastructure buildout is in full swing," stimulating overall economic and earnings growth. This trend is evident in the S&P 500 information technology sector, where expected earnings are up 81.9% year-over-year—more than double the overall S&P 500 increase. Analysts expect this momentum to continue, providing strong support for equities even amid geopolitical uncertainty.

How the Last Bet Played Out

The August 27 Polymarket contract settled "up." The contract saw total trading volume of $32,198.

On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both closed higher. SPY rose 0.66% to $771.10, and QQQ gained 1.37% to $721.11. Meanwhile, the State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust, tracking the Dow, closed up 0.19% to $535.22.