US: Washington Strengthens AI Alignment Strategy - Rabobank

Senior macro strategist at Rabobank, Bas van Geffen, said Washington's regulatory stance on artificial intelligence is shifting from an early restriction-focused approach toward a more operational "carrot and stick" combination. In his latest analysis, he extended the previously proposed Pax Silica framework to describe how the US seeks to balance technological competition with security governance.

**Shift from Restriction to Incentive**

Van Geffen believes US policymakers are no longer relying solely on "stick" measures such as export controls and investment reviews, but are beginning to add more "carrot" elements, including targeted support for domestic AI infrastructure, R&D, and talent cultivation. This change reflects Washington's recognition that simple containment is insufficient to maintain technological advantage, and it must simultaneously strengthen the appeal and output capacity of its own ecosystem.

**Extension of the Pax Silica Framework**

The Pax Silica framework was initially used to describe a global technological order centered on semiconductors and advanced computing capabilities. Van Geffen has now extended it to the field of AI alignment, implying that the US is attempting to integrate values, safety standards, and supply chain control into the same governance logic. According to his analysis, the core of this strategy is not to block all AI development, but to steer the direction of technological evolution in line with Washington's strategic interests.

**Implications for Market Participants**

For financial institutions and multinational corporations, this "carrot and stick" strategy means compliance costs and policy dividends may rise simultaneously. Companies must navigate more complex export rules and data flow restrictions, while also potentially gaining new business opportunities from government subsidies, procurement preferences, and participation in standard-setting. Van Geffen cautioned that understanding Washington's policy rhythm will become a key variable in assessing AI-related assets and industrial chain positioning.