USD/CHF Price Forecast: 100-Day SMA Tested as Dollar Plunges

USD/CHF faced a sharp selloff on Wednesday, falling nearly 2% in a single day, directly triggered by the U.S. Treasury's announcement of a buyback program, which sparked a sharp decline in the dollar and a significant drop in Treasury yields. The pair remained under pressure after briefly hitting an intraday high of 0.8128, currently trading around 0.79797, with the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) under severe test.

**Buyback Program Shakes Dollar Confidence**

The Treasury's buyback operation was interpreted by the market as a disguised release of liquidity, undermining the dollar's scarcity premium. Meanwhile, the simultaneous sharp drop in Treasury yields further narrowed the dollar's yield advantage, and under this dual pressure, the U.S. dollar index fell rapidly. The Swiss franc, as a traditional safe-haven currency, clearly benefited from this round of dollar selling, pushing USD/CHF below the key psychological level of 0.80.

**Key Technical Support Level Under Threat**

The pair is currently trading tightly around the 100-day SMA, which is viewed as a short-term bull-bear dividing line. Market reports indicate that if this moving average support is effectively broken, downside space could further open, with bearish targets pointing toward the 0.7900 level. On the upside, the 0.8100 area, previously a key supply zone, has now turned into the first resistance for any rebound. Notably, the pair has declined for multiple consecutive sessions recently, with technical oversold signals accumulating, but fundamental drivers still dominate the short-term direction.

**Outlook Focuses on Policy Expectation Shifts**

The subsequent trajectory of USD/CHF is highly dependent on the market's repricing of expectations for U.S. fiscal and monetary policy. If details of the buyback program further clarify and reinforce easing expectations, the dollar may extend its adjustment. However, some analysts also caution that the near-2% single-day drop has partially digested short-term negatives, and a technical rebound risk should be watched. Overall, until dollar sentiment shows a substantive recovery, safe-haven buying for the franc is likely to continue weighing on the pair.