USD/CHF Price Forecast: Attempts to Reclaim 0.8000 After Holding 100-Day SMA

USD/CHF stabilized and edged higher on Thursday, trading near 0.79994, as the pair attempted to reclaim the 0.8000 psychological level after holding support at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). In the previous session, broad US dollar weakness pushed the pair below 0.8000 to its lowest level since June 17, temporarily undermining the short-term bullish structure.

**US Dollar Stabilization Drives the Rebound**

The core driver of this rebound stems from the US dollar's own stabilization. The prior session saw broad selling pressure on the greenback, dragging USD/CHF below the key psychological level; as bearish momentum in the dollar subsided and stabilized, the pair found technical buying support near the 100-day SMA. Market reports indicate that the US dollar index saw narrowed fluctuations during Thursday trading, providing direct support for USD/CHF's recovery.

**Technical Focus on 0.8000 Level**

From a technical standpoint, the 0.8000 level remains the short-term bull-bear dividing line. After breaking below this level, the pair did not accelerate lower but instead found support near the 100-day SMA, suggesting some defensive buying beneath. If the pair can sustain a hold above 0.8000 going forward, the short-term bullish structure may be repaired; conversely, a renewed break below the 100-day SMA could extend the corrective phase from June highs. According to technical analysts, the 100-day SMA's hold or loss carries reference value for determining medium-term direction.

**Swiss Franc Strength Background Unchanged**

Notably, the Swiss franc's earlier strength was not solely due to US dollar weakness. Reports indicate that soft US economic data and expectations of tariff relief for Switzerland had boosted the franc during trading sessions, driving USD/CHF lower for multiple consecutive days. This implies that for the pair's rebound to extend, beyond the dollar's own stabilization, market participants will need to monitor whether US economic data improves and how tariff-related headlines evolve.