USD/JPY Price Forecast: Stabilization Signs Above 20-Day EMA Support Further Upside

USD/JPY is trading around 157.04, with the yen showing weakness among major currencies early this week. The pair shows signs of stabilization above the 20-day moving average, providing technical support for further short-term upside.

**BOJ's Hold Weighs on Yen**

The yen has remained under pressure since the Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy decision last Friday. Market expectations on the pace of BOJ tightening have diverged: JPMorgan notes that market pricing for a September rate hike is nearly fully reflected, with the tightening pace implied by 1-year swap rates even exceeding the bank's own forecasts. If rate hike expectations cool, the yen could face renewed pressure. Sucden Financial points out that if US employment data strengthens, USD/JPY could move toward 160; if data weakens, the 155-156 area is seen as support.

**Intervention Risks and Policy Signals Limit Upside**

Despite the dollar's near-term strength, multiple institutions warn that further yen depreciation could trigger policy countermeasures. Reports suggest that if the rate hike path becomes clearer while the yen continues to weaken, Japan's Ministry of Finance may intervene by buying yen, potentially capping USD/JPY's upside. Market focus shifts to the upcoming Jackson Hole speech and the US August jobs report, which could be key catalysts for directional moves in the pair.

**Divergent Institutional Medium-Term Forecasts**

ING expects USD/JPY to reach 160 in the next month, MUFG forecasts 158 for the third quarter, while BofA projects a decline to 149 by year-end, and Goldman Sachs believes the yen's structural repair has "just begun." Behind these directional divergences lie uncertainties over US-Japan yield spreads and the BOJ's policy pace—short-term stabilization does not imply a trend reversal.