Why Did Strategy Stock Surge on Thursday?

Strategy Inc. shares rose more than 10% on Thursday as Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 level. As the company holds a significant amount of Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset, investors often view Strategy stock as a leveraged equity proxy for Bitcoin.

The Nasdaq rose 0.84%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.49%.

On Wednesday, Bernstein cut its price target on Strategy from $450 to $350, while maintaining an Outperform rating.

Bernstein noted the reduction reflects an updated Bitcoin cycle timeline and faster-than-expected equity dilution from share sales.

Sovereign Debt and the Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook

Bernstein set a bull-case target of $500,000 for Bitcoin by 2029, driven by currency debasement and rising national debt.

In a report cited by The Block, analysts stated that "the 40-year era of falling interest rates is over."

Strategy holds 840,447 Bitcoin, representing approximately 4% of the total supply. Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, noted on X that 59% of Bitcoin's supply has remained untouched during a 50% drawdown period.

Technical Analysis

MSTR shares currently trade 32% above their 20-day simple moving average and 38.4% above their 50-day simple moving average, indicating a sharp strengthening in the recent trend. The stock also sits 8.6% above its 100-day simple moving average but remains 2.2% below its 200-day simple moving average, making the long-term trendline the next area that needs to "prove itself."

The relative strength index stands at 73.11, placing the stock in overbought territory and suggesting the rally is overextended in the near term. RSI is essentially a speedometer for price—when it is this elevated, it often means upside can persist, but pullbacks and volatile consolidation become more likely.

Following a death cross in October 2025, the broader trend is still attempting to repair itself. This aligns with the -59.50% 12-month performance, although the current rally is trying to rebuild a base from the June lows.

Key resistance: $149.50—a recent upside zone that aligns with the stock's attempt to reclaim the long-term trend area near the 200-day moving average.

Key support: $118.50—a prior buyer defense zone, closer to the stock's recent uptrend structure and potential pullback area.

MSTR price action: As of Thursday's writing, Strategy shares were up 11.81% at $137.73.