WTI Holds Ground Near $84.50 as US-Iran Peace Uncertainty Intensifies Supply Risks

WTI crude oil prices entered a sideways consolidation after three consecutive days of gains, trading near $84.66 per barrel during the European session on Wednesday. Ongoing geopolitical frictions between the United States and Iran have heightened concerns over global crude supply, providing support for oil prices.

**Supply Risks Dominate the Market**

The uncertain outlook for US-Iran peace talks is the core supporting factor for current oil prices. According to reports, Iran has indicated a shift toward a more aggressive military stance, while the US side has ruled out extending the possibility of a temporary ceasefire agreement, stalling the resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data shows that commercial transit volumes through the strait remain only a fraction of pre-war levels. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried approximately 20% of global oil supply, and its disrupted passage continues to exert sustained pressure on global crude supply.

**Oil Prices at Recent Highs**

Oil prices had previously risen for three consecutive days, with WTI futures touching $85.37 per barrel on Tuesday, marking the highest level since late July. Brent crude futures also climbed above $91 per barrel during the same period. While current WTI prices have pulled back slightly from intraday highs, they remain in consolidation near recent peaks, reflecting that market pricing for supply disruption risks has not yet faded.

**Focus on Negotiation Progress Ahead**

Market analysts noted that US-Iran relations are increasingly unstable, and an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains far off. However, some media reports suggest that the US side has engaged in secret channel contacts with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, leaving a glimmer of space for a diplomatic resolution. Future oil price direction will be highly dependent on whether negotiations can achieve substantive progress and whether signs of improvement emerge in Strait of Hormuz transit conditions.