WTI Price Forecast: 100-Day SMA Caps Upside, Near $85

WTI crude oil futures edged lower in early Asia-Pacific trading on Monday, currently changing hands near $84.76 per barrel, as profit-taking emerged following a cumulative gain of over 5% last week. On the technical front, the 100-day simple moving average forms near-term resistance, limiting further upside for prices.

**Geopolitical risk premium coexists with short-term pullback**. The Iranian parliament continues to advance a toll proposal for the Strait of Hormuz, with the top security official warning of a potential full cutoff of oil exports if the economic war persists. However, the Iranian president signaled a different stance toward ending the "neither war nor peace" status, trimming part of the risk premium. The market is assessing the specifics of the "unprecedented" economic isolation measures set to be announced by the U.S. side.

**Supply-demand fundamentals remain relatively solid**. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained amid heightened tensions, with no fundamental change in the actual constraints on global crude supply. However, after last week's rapid price surge, overbought signals emerged, with technical selling appearing near the 100-day moving average, driving prices off their highs.

**Going forward, focus shifts to U.S.-Iran dynamics**. According to Gelonghui citing CCTV, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that details of economic isolation measures against Iran will be officially unveiled on the 24th, with the market awaiting whether the specific sanctions package includes restrictions on oil exports. If sanctions prove stronger than expected, oil prices may regain upward momentum; otherwise, pullback pressure could persist.