WTI Price Forecast: Bears Hold Upper Hand Below 82.10-82.15 Confluence Resistance

During the European session on Thursday, WTI crude oil prices attracted some selling after rebounding overnight from a two-week-plus low near $79.30, currently trading around the $82.20 level, down less than 0.50% on the day. The market is weighing further developments in the Middle East, with prices showing some vulnerability below the key technical resistance zone of $82.10-$82.15.

**Middle East Tensions Provide Support, But Upside Momentum Limited**

Recently, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated again, providing a floor for oil prices. According to reports, a vessel attack occurred near the Strait of Hormuz, followed by U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets and the revocation of a license that had previously allowed Iran limited crude oil sales. This series of events dashed market expectations of easing U.S.-Iran relations and quickly repriced part of the geopolitical supply risk premium. However, Iran has denied involvement in the attack and accused the U.S. of undermining existing understandings, leaving the situation uncertain. While supply disruption risks limit downside for oil prices, bulls appear to lack the conviction to push prices higher in the absence of signs of fresh escalation.

**Technical Face Key Resistance Test**

From a technical chart perspective, WTI crude oil recently broke above the 200-period simple moving average on the hourly chart, but the rally met resistance near $82.10-$82.15. This zone converges multiple technical resistance levels, posing strong pressure on bulls. Until a decisive break above this confluence resistance area, upside for oil prices may remain limited, with bears holding a short-term advantage. Support to the downside is seen at the $81.00 level and the overnight low of $79.30.

**Market Awaits Fresh Catalysts**

Currently, market participants are closely monitoring the subsequent evolution of Middle East tensions and upcoming U.S. economic data. If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further, threatening shipping safety through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could gain fresh upside momentum. Conversely, if signs of de-escalation emerge or macroeconomic data heighten demand concerns, oil prices could face deeper pullback pressure. In the absence of clear catalysts, oil prices are likely to remain range-bound.