WTI Price Forecast: Bulls Hesitate Below $85.00 and 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance

WTI crude oil prices extended their consolidation for a third consecutive session, trading near $84.61 during Thursday's Asian session, with bulls showing hesitation below the $85.00 level and the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.

**Supply Risks Dominate Pricing Logic**

The core driver behind recent oil price strength stems from supply-side concerns rather than pure risk aversion. Market reports indicate that escalating US-Iran tensions, Houthi pressure on energy vessels, and potential disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have collectively pushed up transportation costs, insurance premiums, and delivery timelines. As a commodity heavily reliant on shipping security, crude oil prices tend to reflect such supply disruption expectations first. Some market analysts note that current WTI pricing near $85.00 represents more "supply unease" than "pure risk aversion," with shipping indices strengthening in tandem, corroborating this logic.

**Technical Resistance Caps Upside**

From a technical structure perspective, the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance and the $85.00 round-number level form an overlapping resistance zone, where bulls have failed to achieve a decisive breakout for three consecutive sessions. After prices rebounded from a low of $66.71 to a high of $71.65, they broke below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level before regaining strength and approaching the current resistance zone. Should the situation escalate from verbal threats to actual blockades or intensified sanctions, oil prices could gain further support; conversely, if military actions remain limited and supply chains avoid substantial damage, markets typically gradually correct overreactions.

**Key Focus Ahead**

Going forward, the market's focus is not on a single news headline but on whether the situation moves from verbal intimidation to actual blockades, attacks, or sanctions escalation. According to financial program discussions, Iran's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a reassessment of energy supply stability, while war risks are also disrupting expectations for the Fed's rate-cut path. In the near term, the fate of the $85.00 level will serve as a bull-bear dividing line, with the breakout depending on whether geopolitical risk premiums can continue to accumulate.