WTI Price Forecast: Tight Oil Supply Supports Further Upside Above $90

WTI crude oil futures traded near $86.16 during Friday's European session, extending a recent choppy uptrend after touching a three-week-plus high of $87.38 in the prior session.

**Supply Disruption Concerns Form Core Support**

Ongoing closures in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continue to constrain global energy supplies, with these two key chokepoints accounting for a combined 27% of global energy supply. Market reports indicate that tightening supply expectations have provided buying support for oil prices above the $86 level, leaving limited room for near-term pullbacks. Analysts note that the impact of the channel disruptions on crude logistics has yet to be fully digested, and if the situation persists, oil prices still have room for further upside.

**Technical Picture Shows Bullish Bias**

From a technical standpoint, WTI has a strong support band in the $85.8-$86.5 range, with the current price holding above this zone and short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment. Some trading views suggest that if oil can effectively break above the prior high near $87.38, the next upside target could look toward the $90 threshold. However, some analysts caution that the spread between near-term and longer-dated contracts has narrowed noticeably, implying the most aggressive phase of the oil price rally may be over, and the subsequent pace of upside could be more moderate.

**Macro and Geopolitical Factors Intertwined**

The US-Iran standoff remains unresolved, with US sanctions on Iran continuing to tighten, while positive signals from US-China trade talks have eased market concerns over global crude demand. According to CME Group's weekly analysis, multiple positive factors are jointly driving oil prices higher in a choppy manner, but investors remain cautious about the US fuel demand outlook, which to some extent caps the near-term upside for oil prices. Overall, supply-side constraints remain the dominant logic in the current oil market.