10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 5%, Bond Vigilantes Stirring: Yardeni Flags Critical Warning Zone

Yardeni Research notes the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.73%, approaching the 5% threshold, with bond vigilantes on heightened alert though not yet in panic mode. The upward yield pressure stems from three forces: fiscal deficit expansion, oil-driven inflation risks, and mega-cap tech AI financing demand. The firm views the 4%-5% range as still normal, but a break above 5% could trigger renewed buying support, while global borrowing costs and the yen face spillover pressure.