AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds Losses Below 112.00, Bearish Outlook Persists Below 100-Day MA

AUD/JPY traded near 111.99 during early European hours on Wednesday, remaining in negative territory. The Bank of Japan's rate hike last week failed to deliver clear hawkish forward guidance, putting some selling pressure on the yen against the Australian dollar, but the pair's rebound momentum remains limited and it stays pinned below key technical moving averages.

**100-Day MA Forms Key Resistance**

From a technical chart perspective, AUD/JPY continues to trade below the 100-day moving average, maintaining a bearish bias. The pair had previously held its losses below the 112.00 handle, indicating that bears remain in control. Should the pair fail to reclaim this moving average, downside pressure will persist, with support to watch at recent low zones. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index also suggest downside lean, indicating that selling pressure has yet to exhaust.

**Yen Lacks Hawkish Support but Safe-Haven Demand Persists**

Following the Bank of Japan's rate hike last week, market expectations for the pace of subsequent tightening remain subdued, which has somewhat eroded the yen's interest rate differential advantage. However, geopolitical uncertainties continue to intermittently trigger safe-haven buying in the yen, limiting upside for AUD/JPY. According to market reports, recent swings in risk sentiment have made the cross pair choppy, but the broader trend of lower lows has yet to reverse.

**AUD Dragged by Commodity Prices**

On the Aussie side, falling iron ore and energy prices have weighed on the commodity currency, with AUD/USD breaking below its uptrend line earlier and technicals turning soft. This weakness has also transmitted to the AUD/JPY cross, leaving the pair facing dual pressure during rebounds. Unless commodity prices stabilize and recover, the Australian dollar will find it difficult to stage an independent rally in AUD/JPY.