Bitunix Analyst: Rate Hike Not the End; Real Test for Fed and Treasury Market Just Beginning

On September 16, as the Fed's decision-making draws to a close, market focus has shifted from "whether to hike" to whether the Fed can rebuild expectations of controlled inflation through communication. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%, and market pricing is no longer just about short-term policy rates but is reassessing inflation, fiscal, and capital demand over the coming years. Although the Treasury has expanded long-term Treasury buybacks and coordinated yen policy to stabilize liquidity, it cannot determine long-term funding costs.

Conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation have made energy supply disruptions affect transportation and manufacturing, turning inflation from a price issue into a supply capacity problem. Meanwhile, AI and infrastructure continue to absorb capital, and if companies increase capital expenditure but face higher financing costs, the market will demand higher returns on capital. The real watershed is not the 25 basis points but whether policy can change the chain reaction among long-end rates, energy supply, and global capital allocation.

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