Can Midterm Election Pressure Still Trigger "TACO"?

The midterm election game is becoming clearer, with CITIC Securities assessing that "Democrats take the House, Republicans hold the Senate" is the most likely outcome. While divided chambers would add friction to Trump's policy agenda, extreme risks such as impeachment conviction or blocked judicial appointments remain unlikely—the market's hope that "TACO" constraints would force Trump to concede on tariffs and geopolitical issues may overestimate the actual leverage of election pressure.