Fed's Goolsbee Says Inflation Is the Primary Issue at Hand

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, speaking with CNBC during the Jackson Hole symposium, explicitly stated that inflation is the Federal Reserve's primary issue at hand, adding that he agrees with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's views on economic details. This stance aligns with his previous position expressed in public videos—Goolsbee has previously stated that the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy is not industrial collapse or employment breakdown, but rather excessively rapid price increases.

**Inflation Pressures Remain Elevated, but Early Signs of Marginal Improvement Emerge**

In his latest remarks, Goolsbee noted that recent U.S. inflation data has shown "slight improvement." According to previously released data, the July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, a modest decline from the prior reading of 3.5%; core CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, below the prior 2.6%. However, he still emphasized that "inflation is too high" and expressed hope that price pressures will continue to ease as the effects of tariff impacts and geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices gradually fade. Notably, oil prices have recently rebounded to around $84 per barrel, and geopolitical risks remain unresolved, adding uncertainty to the future inflation trajectory.

**Fed Internal Divisions Persist, Policy Path Remains Unclear**

Goolsbee's remarks reflect the complex hawkish-dovish standoff within the Fed. Last month, the Fed held its policy rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but based on voting patterns and post-meeting public comments, at least 5 of the 19 policymakers lean toward rate hikes. Meanwhile, Wall Street institutions show clearly divergent forecasts for the subsequent policy path: BofA maintains its expectation of three rate hikes this year, while Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Asset Management see no need for further hikes. According to CME data, as of the relevant statistical point, the market's pricing probability for a September rate hike had fallen to 34.8%.

**Policy Communication Style Shifts, Forward Guidance Fades**

Goolsbee's mention of agreement with Warsh's views also comes against the backdrop of adjustments to the Fed's policy communication style. According to market reports, Warsh, in his first time chairing an FOMC meeting after taking office, explicitly stated that he would not provide any guidance on next steps to the market, emphasizing that inflation remains well above the 2% target. This shift implies that future market judgments on the policy path will rely more on data itself rather than officials' forward-looking statements.