Fertilizer Prices Rise Before Grain Prices: Not Just "Food Security" — El Niño Opens "Second Phase" of Agrochemical Cycle

Expectations for a super El Niño in 2026 continue to build, and weather disruptions have already begun to affect key agricultural regions in Southeast Asia and India. However, historical experience shows that a strong El Niño does not necessarily lead to across-the-board declines in staple grain output. What deserves closer attention is that fertilizer market strength has already emerged ahead of grain prices: urea is supported by export demand and high overseas prices, phosphate fertilizers are constrained by rock supply, sulfur, and shipping costs, while potash supply is tightening. If weather shocks further push up grain prices and farming returns in 2027, could the current supply-driven fertilizer rally enter a second phase driven by demand-side fundamentals?