GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls Test Rebound Momentum Below Key Moving Averages

GBP/JPY traded strongly on Friday, gaining approximately 0.50% to trade near 210.76. Broad dollar weakness provided upward momentum for the high-yielding pound, while the yen underperformed against all major currencies except the dollar. On the technical front, the pair is testing key moving average resistance, and whether bulls can break through effectively will determine the short-term direction.

**Rebound Faces Moving Average Resistance**

According to market reports, GBP/JPY previously rebounded from the 200-day simple moving average and attracted consecutive buying, briefly reaching a weekly high. However, the pair currently remains below key moving averages, with rebound momentum facing challenges. Analysts note that if the resistance zone is not broken effectively, the pair could return to a range-bound pattern. From a broader perspective, similar technical structures are evident in GBP/USD—since February, every GBP/USD rebound has stalled below the previous swing high, forming a series of lower highs, indicating persistent overhead selling pressure.

**Short-Term Momentum and Risks**

Despite Friday's notable gains, the sustainability of short-term upward momentum remains to be seen. Some technical analysts believe that as long as price remains capped by key resistance levels, the short-term trend still leans bearish. If the pair falls back below the recently broken support zone on increased volume, it could suggest that this upside move stems more from short-term capital flows rather than sustained demand improvement. Conversely, if it can hold the current area under normal trading conditions, the upward structure could extend.

**Divergent Views and Key Focus**

Market opinions on GBP/JPY's outlook are divided. The bullish camp argues that the pair has potential to continue accumulating momentum above the 195.00 level; the cautious camp emphasizes that each rebound is losing strength, indicating the pound encounters fresh selling pressure more quickly after recovering. This week's major central bank meetings are in focus—if the Bank of England leans hawkish or the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, it could provide additional support for the pound, but until then, the overall technical structure still favors viewing rebounds as opportunities to watch for selling pressure.