Goldman Sachs: Crypto Trading Volumes Fall for 10 Straight Months, Inflection Point May Be Near

Goldman Sachs said in a research report dated August 24, 2026 that crypto trading volumes have declined for 10 consecutive months: down 30% in July and 21% in August, with cumulative losses of 75% from the peak. Crypto market cap rebounded 21% over the past week, and Goldman believes that if market cap holds current levels, a turning point in trading volumes may be near.

On regulation, 35% of institutions cite regulatory uncertainty as the biggest obstacle, while 32% see regulatory clarity as the primary catalyst. The SEC has proposed an innovation exemption, and in 2026 more than 10 digital asset companies received OCC banking licenses, with over 15 crypto firms now integrated into the federal banking system. Crypto companies cut costs by an average of about 5% in 2026, boosting operating margins by roughly 5.8 percentage points.

Goldman Sachs remains cautiously optimistic on the second half of the year, noting the sector trades at the 30th percentile of five-year valuation ranges. It recommends COIN (target $196), HOOD (target $124), IBKR (target $114, conviction list), and FIGR (target $43). The three asset types have different logics: traditional brokers hinge on a September reversal, prediction markets depend on election cycles, and crypto names benefit from a triple tailwind of market cap rebound, cost cuts, and regulatory reform.

[TechFlow]