Goldman Sachs Trading Desk Warns: Be Alert to Geopolitical Risks as Trump More Prone to War When US Stocks Are at Record Highs

Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' Delta-one trading desk, warned that when the S&P 500 is at record highs and financial conditions are at their loosest in recent years, market constraints on policymakers diminish, effectively lowering the threshold for geopolitical conflict. With the current Middle East situation escalating, markets remain largely unmoved, with the VIX hovering around 14—this "desensitization" is precisely the most dangerous signal, as geopolitical tail risks are systematically underestimated.