IEA Warns: Q3 Crude Supply Gap Expected to Double, Annual Deficit May Hit Five-Year High

Middle East hostilities have severely tightened global oil supply, with IEA data showing the market currently faces a shortfall of approximately 1.8 million barrels per day, and global inventories have declined by 410 million barrels. Although high oil prices curb demand, the supply contraction is even more pronounced. The Persian Gulf still has 8.3 million barrels per day of capacity shut in, with supply recovery potentially delayed until 2027.