Institutional Gold Futures Buying Hits Record Over Past Three Weeks

Over the past three weeks, speculative funds have posted net buying of $22.2 billion in gold futures, setting the highest nominal amount record in over a decade, with net long positioning at the 93rd percentile of the past two years. After the U.S. Treasury expanded its long-end buyback program, gold prices rose nearly 6% in a single week. Goldman Sachs and UBS both remain bullish on gold's medium-to-long-term outlook, but warn of near-term overheating risks in positioning, with the Jackson Hole symposium emerging as the biggest near-term variable. Prediction markets now show the probability of gold reaching $5,000 within the year has exceeded 60%.