Never "turned hawkish in the second half of an election year" in the past 40 years—Is the Fed "different this time"?

The market may be overestimating the probability of a rate hike. Nomura Securities noted that recent cooling inflation has given the Fed "room to wait"; combined with the historical rule that it has never "turned hawkish" in the second half of an election year since 1990, the Fed is likely to remain on hold before the midterm elections under the dual constraints of economic data and the political cycle.