Nine Crypto Firms Form Quantum Alliance to Defend 6.4 Million Bitcoin from Quantum Risk

Nine crypto companies announced Thursday the formation of a quantum alliance, planning to establish common security standards for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blockchain networks to address the threat of future quantum computers. The alliance estimates that approximately 6.4 million Bitcoin, or 30.2% of the supply, have exposed public keys, and future quantum computers could potentially reverse-engineer wallet public keys to recover private keys and steal assets. The alliance noted that since no quantum computer currently possesses sufficient computing power, these Bitcoin cannot yet be stolen in this manner. Members include Hacken, Charles Hoskinson's Midnight Foundation, quantum-resistant layer-1 blockchains Quantus and Postquant Labs, among others. Industry opinions diverge significantly on when the quantum threat will arrive. Bryn Bennett, Chief Revenue Officer at The Vault, said no one knows the exact date, but estimates keep being revised downward, and this risk can be planned for in advance. Custodians must answer not whether the threat emerges in 2028 or 2035, but whether they can complete migration if it arrives early. Richard Carback, Chief Technology Officer at Postquant Labs, believes it is realistic for a machine capable of breaking current cryptography to emerge by 2028. Recent research has lowered estimates of the computing power required to attack Bitcoin and Ethereum, but no existing machine can currently break their cryptography, and related predictions remain disputed. Whether to freeze vulnerable Bitcoin also sparks debate. Bennett noted that no one is responsible for this issue—custodians only protect client assets, not abandoned ones. Freezing tokens constitutes a governance decision of the Bitcoin network, and any freeze would set a precedent of trading quantum risk for property rights and neutrality. Carback leans toward transferring vulnerable tokens and proposes placing them in trust, allowing holders who can prove ownership to reclaim funds. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has suggested that if quantum technology advances while Satoshi Nakamoto's approximately 1.1 million Bitcoin remain untouched, they should be frozen; Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp has also proposed restricting vulnerable tokens to prevent theft, but critics argue that freezing others' Bitcoin violates the promise that no one can confiscate Bitcoin. Achieving quantum resistance requires replacing the digital signatures used to authorize transactions, which demands consensus among developers, miners, wallet service providers, exchanges, and users. New signatures may also consume more block space, driving up fees or reducing the number of transactions Bitcoin can process.