Oil Prices Plunge 5%, Offering Bessent Relief on Bond Yields, but Structural Pressures Remain

Oil prices fell more than 5%, pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down 6 basis points to 4.64%, yet the yield remains range-bound within a near five-week band, reflecting a technical adjustment rather than a structural decline. Inflation above target, persistently heavy Treasury supply, and robust nominal growth collectively constrain the downside for long-end yields, making the substantial repricing hoped for by Treasury Secretary Bessent difficult to achieve.