OPEC+ Output Share Drops to 40%, Oil Market Leadership Sees Structural Shift

Six months after the Middle East conflict, OPEC+'s share of global oil production has fallen from above 48% to 40%, significantly weakening its market control. Demand-side contraction is replacing supply adjustments as the new "ceiling" for oil prices, while OPEC+'s six production increases since March have mostly remained on paper, with actual supply constrained by factors such as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The global oil market's pricing logic is shifting from "supply-led" to a two-way game between supply and demand.