OpenAI GPT-6 Astra Passes All Robot Verification Tests, Prediction Markets Bet on Early 2027 AGI Announcement

Prediction markets are increasingly viewing Q1 2027 as a likely timeframe for a company to formally announce the achievement of artificial general intelligence.

AGI by 2027?

As of press time, Kalshi pricing shows a 62% probability that any company formally announces AGI by April 1, 2027, up from 32% the previous day. The probability briefly climbed to an all-time high of 72% before pulling back slightly.

Additionally, OpenAI's probability of announcing AGI by the end of 2026 stands at 24.7%, while the probability of an announcement in 2027 is higher, at 50%.

Will OpenAI Lead?

Market sentiment has surged after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang claimed that OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra has achieved artificial general intelligence.

OpenAI President Greg Brockman reposted Huang's post, stating the company is "entering the AGI era."

In simple terms, AGI is a hypothetical computer program or machine capable of learning, thinking, and solving any intellectual task like a human.

OpenAI has released the model to a specific group of organizations and plans to roll it out gradually to all ChatGPT users.

Sharif Shameem, who works on the OpenAI Labs team, shared a video showing Astra completing all 48 levels of Neal.fun's famous "I'm Not a Robot" game.

Astra has successfully passed all 48 levels of the "I'm Not a Robot" game:

— Sharif Shameem September 7, 2026

Kalshi and OpenAI already have a data cooperation agreement in place.