Prediction Markets Favor Democratic Sweep of Senate and House

Three days before the U.S. midterm elections, prediction markets favor a sweeping Democratic victory.

As of noon ET Saturday, both Kalshi and Polymarket gave Democrats a 71% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of taking the House by securing roughly 235 seats.

Key Senate races favor Democrats in both polls and prediction markets

Prediction market participants see a 53-to-47 Democratic majority in the Senate. Here's what forecasts and polls show in key races:

Alaska: Mary Peltola leads Senator Dan Sullivan by 50.1% to 48.2% in the polling average. Kalshi gives Peltola a 69.3% chance of winning, while Polymarket puts her odds at 71.5%.

Florida: Senator Ashley Moody leads with 50.0% support in polls versus 43.8% for Angie Nixon. Kalshi gives Moody an 88.1% chance of winning, and Polymarket places her odds at 90.5%.

Iowa: Josh Turek holds 46.1% support versus Ashley Hinson's 45.7%. But prediction markets see Hinson with a slight edge. Kalshi gives her a 55.4% chance, and Polymarket puts it at 55.5%.

Kansas: Adam Hamilton leads Senator Roger Marshall by 48.7% to 45.4% in late polls, and Kalshi now gives Hamilton a slight edge at 50.5%. Polymarket puts Hamilton's winning chance at 51.7%. In early 2026, Kalshi had given the incumbent a 94% chance, and as recently as September 1, Marshall's odds stood at 84%.

Maine: Troy Jackson leads Senator Susan Collins by 49.5% to 46.0%. Kalshi gives Jackson a 67.6% chance of winning, and Polymarket places it at 68.5%.

Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers by 49.3% to 44.6%. Kalshi gives El-Sayed a 75.0% chance, and Polymarket puts it at 79.5%.

Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya by 49.5% to 42.1%. Kalshi gives Flanagan a 90.5% chance, and Polymarket puts it at 91.5%.

Mississippi: Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith leads Scott Colom by 44.6% to 40.4%. Kalshi gives Hyde-Smith an 88.1% chance, and Polymarket puts it at 88.0%.

Nebraska: Senator Pete Ricketts leads Democratic-backed independent Dan Osborn by just 0.1 percentage points, 46.4% to 46.3%. But both Kalshi and Polymarket give the incumbent a 75.0% chance.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown leads Senator Jon Husted by 44.7%. Kalshi gives Brown a 70.3% chance, and Polymarket puts it at 73.5%.

South Carolina: Senator Darline Graham leads Annie Andrews by 46.0% to 45.6%. Both Kalshi and Polymarket give Graham a 73.0% chance.

Texas: James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 49.3% to 45.9%. Kalshi gives Talarico a 70.3% chance, and Polymarket puts it at 71.5%.

Why it matters

These forecasts suggest Democrats could win control of both chambers of Congress, potentially giving the party greater influence over legislation after the midterms.

The market outlook also highlights several competitive Senate races. Alaska and Kansas have shifted into favorable territory for Democrats, while Florida, Mississippi, and Nebraska remain more solid ground for Republican incumbents.

Since these forecasts reflect market pricing rather than certified results, the projected seat totals and candidate odds could still change before voters cast their ballots.