Anthropic IPO Faces Real-World Risks: AI Bubble Concerns Persist, Blackstone Warns

Anthropic, the developer of the popular AI chatbot Claude, is preparing for an initial public offering that could take place as early as November. However, the listing faces significant headwinds as concerns surrounding the artificial intelligence industry persist.

Anthropic IPO Comes Amid Steep Declines in AI Stocks

Anthropic's upcoming IPO arrives as most AI stocks are experiencing sharp declines. In Hong Kong, shares of Z.ai and MiniMax have fallen more than 80% from their all-time highs. Both companies are comparable to Anthropic, as their businesses focus on building AI models.

The same trend is evident in the United States, where top AI companies are declining. These include well-known names such as Nvidia, Micron, Alphabet, and SanDisk.

On top of that, SpaceX, which went public in June, has dropped 40% from its peak, erasing billions of dollars in market value. SpaceX holds a significant position in the AI space through its stake in Grok and its data center leasing business.

As a result, Anthropic's stock also faces downside risk, especially if it goes public in the current environment. In fact, most Polymarket traders expect the company's valuation to reach $1.5 trillion in December.

Historically, companies tend to list during market booms, as this typically boosts their stock value. When SpaceX conducted its IPO in June, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were hovering near all-time highs.

Investors Are Pushing Back on AI Valuations

Anthropic's IPO also faces ongoing investor resistance to lofty AI valuations. For example, Firmus, a data center company backed by Nvidia, recently terminated its IPO process due to investor pushback on its $30 billion valuation.

Another Nvidia-backed data center company, Nscale, is considering cutting its valuation of up to $33 billion as investors express resistance. Additionally, other top new cloud companies such as CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN have all seen their shares decline significantly.

Concerns over Anthropic's valuation intensified after it released its prospectus, which disclosed the scale of its spending. The company generated $16.8 billion in revenue in the first half of the year but posted a loss of $80 billion. The company plans to continue increasing spending in the coming years.

Meanwhile, Blackstone has warned that the company may struggle to achieve an investment-grade rating after its IPO. This situation would significantly raise its borrowing costs over time.

Another sign of investor resistance is that OpenAI raised $11 billion from investors, well below the $30 billion it had sought.

Therefore, there is indeed a risk that the company could decide to pause its IPO until market conditions improve.