S&P, Dow Fall for Ninth Straight Year on Tuesday After Labor Day; History Points to Soft September?

As summer unofficially comes to a close, historical data shows major stock indexes have fallen for nine consecutive years on the Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday, raising the likelihood of a tenth decline on September 8.

The History of "Tuesday Weakness"

Market strategist Ryan Detrick noted that immediate rebounds after long holiday weekends have been dismal in recent years. Detrick recently posted on X: "The Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 have fallen for nine straight years on the Tuesday after Labor Day."

Detrick's observation cites data from Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac. Hirsch analyzed post-holiday market performance from 2005 to 2025 and observed that "historically, Tuesday has been weak, while Wednesday has been much stronger."

During this period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell an average of 0.28% on the Tuesday after Labor Day, matching the Russell 2000's 0.28% decline. The Nasdaq averaged a 0.23% drop, while the S&P 500 fell 0.20%.

Additionally, the Dow and S&P 500 have closed higher on this specific Tuesday only 33.3% of the time. Detailed charts show the last time the Dow and S&P 500 closed higher on the Tuesday after Labor Day was back in 2016. The 2024 Tuesday session was particularly brutal, with the Nasdaq plunging 3.26%.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 have fallen for nine straight years on the Tuesday after Labor Day.

Wow. Great data from @AlmanacTrader.

— Ryan Detrick, CMT, September 7, 2026

The "Wednesday Strength" Rebound

Despite the persistent Tuesday slump, the following trading day often sees a reversal. As Hirsch wrote: "Wednesday paints a more optimistic picture."

On the Wednesday after Labor Day, the Russell 2000 averaged a gain of 0.31%, the S&P 500 rose 0.28%, the Nasdaq gained 0.27%, and the Dow advanced 0.25%. Notably, the Dow posted positive returns on 66.7% of these Wednesdays.

A Harbinger of September Weakness

These divergent daily patterns emerge as investors face what is widely considered the toughest period of the year. Hirsch noted that since September is historically the weakest month for markets, "post-Labor Day market performance could provide an important early signal as to whether seasonal weakness is beginning to show."

How Are Stocks Performing in 2026?

The S&P 500 is up 12.54% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite has gained 14.08%, while the Dow Jones is up 10.40% year-to-date.

Last Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, closed mixed. SPY fell 0.39% to $770.19, while QQQ rose 0.18% to $718.96. Meanwhile, the State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust, which tracks the Dow, also closed down 0.53% at $534.08.

As of this writing, futures on the S&P 500 and Dow were trading lower, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged slightly higher in overnight trading.