Study: Over 150 Polymarket Wallets Suspected of Trading on Classified U.S. Military Intel, Earning ~$8 Million

New research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows that at least 152 anonymous wallets on Polymarket may have traded using advance knowledge of U.S. military and defense-related information, accumulating roughly $8 million in profits with an average win rate of 97.2%. However, the research group emphasized that blockchain data alone cannot prove the identity of the actual controllers of these wallets, nor can it confirm the source of their information, so insider trading cannot be conclusively established. ACDC analyzed settled markets on Polymarket, focusing on "low-probability, high-stakes bets"—trades where at least $2,500 was wagered within one hour on outcomes with a probability of no more than 35%. The study identified 556 wallets with anomalous trading patterns, 152 of which were tied to military and defense markets. These wallets, dubbed "Orcas" by researchers, are characterized by sudden appearance, betting on low-probability events with abnormally high success rates, and then cashing out profits. The study found that low-probability bets in military and defense markets had significantly higher success rates than Polymarket's overall average, with some anomalous trades quickly attracting follow-on activity from large traders and automated trading bots. For example, ahead of the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, an anomalous bet on a U.S. military action was followed by an automated trading bot wagering $200,000 and another large trader betting $100,000. Researchers also found similar anomalous bets and follow-on trading before the U.S.-Israeli strike on Tehran. ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi stated that anomalous trading activity on Polymarket is more public than many traders realize, with large traders and bots already tracking and copying suspected informed trades, meaning foreign intelligence agencies could also monitor these public on-chain activities. Insider trading in prediction markets has drawn increasing regulatory scrutiny recently. In April, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with trading Polymarket contracts using classified information about the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, allegedly profiting over $404,000. That case is not directly linked to the 152 wallets identified in this study. Additionally, in May, the CFTC charged a Google software engineer with trading 23 Polymarket contracts using confidential information related to the company's 2025 "Year in Search" rankings, earning approximately $1.2 million with near-perfect accuracy. Polymarket has previously stated that it closely monitors suspicious trading and has reported dozens of wallets to relevant authorities. As the prediction market continues to expand, insider trading, market manipulation, and national security risks are becoming key justifications for heightened regulatory oversight.