The Mystery of Surging Long-Term Bond Yields

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged past 5.32%, hitting a new high since 2007, sharply elevating risks in the global long-term bond market. Sinolink Macro believes that the AI arms race among tech giants is generating trillion-dollar financing demand, competing with U.S. Treasuries for global long-term capital; combined with the Fed's credibility discount, inflation concerns from high oil prices, and the "gray rhino" of Japanese capital repatriation, upward pressure on long-end yields is far from over—gold may emerge as the ultimate beneficiary.