Three Main Threads of August Exports

Shenwan Hongyuan Macro believes that August exports rose 25% year-over-year, beating expectations, supported by three main threads: first, high growth in AI exports, with price hikes lifting nominal readings; second, continued improvement in consumer goods exports, driven by both US import replenishment and "supply substitution"; third, weakening exports of non-AI production materials and exports to the EU and ASEAN. Imports continued to grow strongly, mainly due to AI product price increases, while commodity imports weakened. Going forward, exports may maintain resilience, with AI and consumer sectors likely to be the key supports.