$4,600: Gold Climbs to Three-Month High, Targeting Third Weekly Gain

Spot gold extended its strength on Friday, briefly breaking above $4,600 during the session to hit its highest level since May 15, trading near $4,598 at press time. Gold has gained approximately 13% so far this month, with weekly charts poised for a third consecutive gain, as market safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends continue to underpin the precious metal.

**Multiple Factors Converge to Lift Gold Prices**

Behind the current rally, global central banks' ongoing push for reserve diversification is a key pillar. Market data shows annual global mine production holds steady at around 3,500 tonnes, while central bank gold purchases have averaged over 1,000 tonnes per year over the past three years, accounting for nearly one-third of mine output. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical conflicts have fueled risk-aversion sentiment, compounded by a relatively weaker dollar and lingering inflation expectations concerns, prompting speculative capital to chase gains and jointly driving prices higher. Fed rate-cut expectations and a tight gold supply-demand structure are also fueling the uptrend.

**Institutions Warn of High-Level Pullback Risks**

Despite bullish expectations still dominating, some analysts caution against potential reversal signals. Some argue that if U.S. inflation rebounds above expectations, forcing the Fed to maintain tightening, coupled with easing geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in central bank gold purchases, the precious metals market could trigger a deep correction. Kang Daozhi, Chairman of Daozhi Investment, expects a medium-to-long-term oscillating uptrend, with COMEX gold futures prices having a chance to reach the $4,800-$5,000 range within the year, though high-level volatility will intensify significantly, with support likely in the $4,300-$4,500 zone. He advises investors to remain rational, allocating 5%-15% of total capital to gold with a gradual position-building strategy, avoiding heavy concentrated bets.

**Wall Street's Medium-to-Long-Term Outlook Remains Cautiously Optimistic**

Several international investment banks hold positive views on gold's medium-term trajectory. Standard Chartered expects gold to rebound to $5,375 within three months after the current deleveraging cycle ends. BofA Securities forecasts gold average prices to rise quarter by quarter from Q2 to Q4 2026, ranging between $4,500 and $5,750, with a year-end target of $5,750. A Citi report notes that momentum-driven buying led by retail and ETF investors over the past 12 months has been the core driver pushing gold up from $2,500, but this positioning structure also makes gold vulnerable to forced declines when risk assets face large-scale sell-offs.