Analyst: Bitcoin Market Structure Improves, Spot Demand Still Needs Confirmation for Breakout

CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated that Bitcoin's market structure remains constructive, but the subsequent trend still depends on whether real spot demand can absorb market supply.

ETF holdings continue to rise, indicating that institutional investors are still absorbing BTC. Binance's BTC reserves remain at approximately 685,000 to 687,000 coins, with the 7-day average net exchange inflow rising to around 593 coins, while stablecoin inflows are also increasing. The derivatives market has shown some cooling, with funding rates turning negative, and open interest declining from approximately $27.5 billion to $25.7 billion between September 4 and 5.

However, Binance's BTC open interest has recently risen above $10 billion, reaching a six-month high, suggesting that the current rebound is not yet fully driven by spot. Short-term holder SOPR has recovered to above 1, with some long-dormant BTC (including those related to 2010 miners) becoming active. The key lies in whether spot demand can drive BTC to effectively break through the $82,000 to $83,000 range.

[TechFlow]