Autodesk Stock Falls: Cloud Sales Beat but Cost Outlook Pressures

Autodesk Inc shares remain in focus after the software company posted better-than-expected growth and profitability, but investors weighed a raised revenue outlook against a more cautious margin forecast.

• Autodesk stock is pulling back from recent levels. Why is ADSK shares falling?

BTIG Sees Stronger Organic Growth

BTIG analyst Nick Altmann reiterated a Buy rating on Autodesk with a $300 price target, citing stronger-than-expected revenue growth, resilient renewals, and improving expansion activity.

Altmann noted Autodesk delivered 14% constant-currency revenue growth, above BTIG's estimate of 12%. Reported revenue grew 16%, or 14% on a constant-currency basis.

After adjusting for new transaction models and currency impacts, revenue growth was 12%, beating BTIG's 9% estimate. Billings grew 10%, or 12% in constant currency, exceeding the 8% consensus expectation.

Excluding currency effects, Autodesk also raised its fiscal 2027 organic revenue growth outlook by roughly 100 basis points.

Altmann said marketing strategy adjustments remain within management's expectations, renewals continue to be strong, and expansion activity is showing early improvement ahead of a wave of large enterprise contract renewals in the second half.

MaintainX is expected to contribute approximately $60 million in revenue and about $70 million in billings in fiscal 2027.

Margins Remain the Key Concern

Autodesk reported an operating margin of 41%, above BTIG's 39% estimate, expanding roughly 200 basis points year over year. GAAP operating margin came in at 29%, versus BTIG's 26% estimate.

However, Altmann said the margin outlook is the main sticking point. Due to costs from MaintainX, Autodesk maintained its fiscal 2027 operating margin framework of approximately 39% and lowered its GAAP margin outlook by about 100 basis points.

Management expects modest operating margin expansion in fiscal 2028, though Altmann noted consensus already reflects much of this improvement.

BTIG maintained its $300 price target, based on roughly 20 times estimated fiscal 2028 free cash flow.

ADSK stock trading: As of Friday's close, Autodesk shares were down 4.51% at $258.39.