European Gas: Storage Gap Supports High Prices – Commerzbank

The European natural gas market is facing multiple supply pressures, with the logic supporting high prices becoming increasingly clear. Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke recently warned that inventory gaps, liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply disruptions, and the closing window for refilling storage are jointly keeping European gas prices strong.

**Low Inventories, Refilling Pressure Cannot Be Ignored**

According to Commerzbank's analysis, current European gas storage levels are notably low, and the end of the refilling season has further compressed the market's buffer space. Liebke noted that if winter LNG imports fail to pick up effectively, at the current inflow rate of about 8 bcm per month, European gas storage levels could trend toward depletion by March next year. This outlook is intensifying market concerns over supply security.

**Qatar LNG Export Pause Heightens Supply Tightness**

The temporary pause in Qatar's LNG exports is another significant disruption facing the European gas market. As LNG has become a key substitute for pipeline gas in Europe in recent years, the stability of its supply directly impacts market price movements. Liebke warned that whether LNG inflows can recover significantly during winter will be a key variable determining Europe's gas storage levels.

**Price Forecast Raised, High-Level Pattern Persists**

Under these multiple pressures, Commerzbank has raised its European gas price forecast for end-2026 from €45 per megawatt-hour to €50 per megawatt-hour, reflecting its assessment of a tight medium-term supply-demand balance in the European gas market. Notably, recent mild weather reportedly slowed inventory drawdowns and briefly stabilized prices, but Liebke believes this has not fundamentally altered the structural supply-side pressures, leaving the market in an overall tight state.

In summary, with the storage gap yet to be effectively bridged and LNG imports facing uncertainty, the logic supporting high European gas prices is unlikely to reverse in the near term.