Fed Rate Hike Probability Rises to 60%, Oil Nears $100—Why Is Gold Rallying Against the Trend?

A softer dollar provided key support, with spot gold hitting $4,435 per ounce on Tuesday, erasing the previous day's losses. With oil approaching the $100 mark and the probability of a Fed rate hike next week rising to 60%, the upside is constrained under dual pressures. This week's CPI data will be the biggest variable. Institutions have rebuilt long positions, and the logic of central bank gold purchases and dollar diversification continues to play out, but the next upward move may require a new macro catalyst.