Gold: Jackson Hole Keeps Gold at High-Level Consolidation Risk - OCBC

Gold is currently trading around $4,611, continuing its high-level consolidation pattern. OCBC analyst Christopher Wong maintains a bullish stance on gold but cautions that with stronger inflation pushing yields and the dollar higher, this rally is increasingly nearing its end, with the Jackson Hole symposium becoming the immediate macro test.

**Technical Analysis: High-Level Volatility, Direction Pending**

OCBC sees resistance at 4,700–4,769, with support at 4,574 followed by 4,520. The current price sits between support and resistance, leaving no clear short-term directional bias. Citi also notes that technical indicators such as MACD and DMI remain positive, with RSI near 72, suggesting gold is overbought but not yet at extreme levels. This implies pullback pressure exists, but the technical structure has not clearly deteriorated.

**Fund Flows: Speculative Dominance, Physical Demand Lagging**

Citi reports that this rally has been driven primarily by speculative inflows, especially from futures. CFTC data shows net managed money positions near year-to-date highs, though still below the 2024–2025 peaks. Citi warns that sustaining the uptrend requires physical demand to catch up. However, Chinese retail demand remains weak, investors favor range trading over chasing highs, and Indian gold premiums stay negative—all pointing to fragile physical support.

**Event Risk: Jackson Hole as a Binary Catalyst**

Market focus is on Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Citi frames this as a binary risk event: if Powell delivers hawkish remarks, the rally could end, with Citi planning to buy near $4,000 on dips; if he surprises dovish, it would be "extremely bullish" for gold. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate hike has risen to around 40% from roughly 36% before the PCE data, with about 60% odds of holding rates steady, leaving the policy path highly uncertain.