Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Early Losses, Hovers Near $4,630 as US Yields Plunge

During Tuesday's European trading session, gold prices edged lower after an earlier attempt to extend gains failed, with the metal trading near $4,636. The decline followed gold's failure to hold above the $4,700 level, triggering a short-term pullback. Meanwhile, a notable drop in US Treasury yields has somewhat limited gold's downside, with markets closely monitoring further macro cues.

**Short-Term Technical Pressure Builds, Key Support Levels Under Test**

From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a weak consolidation pattern. The World Gold Council (WGC) noted that gold had already broken below early-February lows, refreshing a phase low, which further reinforced selling momentum. In the near term, as long as gold remains below the moving average resistance zone of $4,922 to $4,932, downside risks remain dominant. Immediate support to watch lies at the $4,450 to $4,430 region; a break below could pave the way toward the $4,400 level.

**Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwine, Market in "Wait-and-See Mode"**

The gold market is currently being pulled by two opposing forces. On one hand, plunging US Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, offering some respite to bulls. On the other hand, according to WGC analysis, the market is in a clear "wait-and-see mode," with liquidity concerns and deleveraging pressures dominating short-term trading. On the geopolitical front, any new developments in the Iran situation could trigger sharp volatility in gold prices. Signs of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could help rebuild market confidence; conversely, expectations of further rate hikes could intensify, pressuring gold prices.

**Long-Term Logic Intact, but Short-Term Risks Persist**

Despite weak gold price action driven by technical and short-term liquidity pressures, the metal's long-term fundamental support remains intact. The WGC believes that rising debt, global fragmentation, and safe-haven demand continue to favor gold. The current weakness in gold prices reflects more short-term market stress than a breakdown in long-term logic. The institution assesses that gold is likely to attempt to find a phase bottom within the key support zone of $4,090 to $4,066, which encompasses retracement levels of the long-term uptrend and the 200-day moving average. However, a decisive close below this zone would signal deeper correction risks.