Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Pulls Back Toward $4,620, Awaiting US PCE Inflation Data

During Wednesday's European trading session, spot gold prices pulled back, currently trading near $4,614, down approximately 0.75% on the day. The previous day, gold had touched a three-month high of $4,697, but the rally paused ahead of key data releases. Market focus has shifted to the upcoming US July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, with investor sentiment broadly turning cautious.

**Short-Term Drivers Focus on Inflation and Policy Signals**

The upcoming PCE data is viewed as a key variable influencing the Fed's subsequent rate path. Recent Fed officials' statements have leaned hawkish overall, with new Chairman Warsh emphasizing "price stability first," which markets interpret as a signal that easing policy will not come easily. Analysts note that if PCE data exceeds expectations, it could further raise the probability of rate hikes, thereby pressuring gold. Meanwhile, long-end US Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield around 4.70%, implying that the opportunity cost of holding gold remains significant, posing a potential headwind to gold's upside.

**Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwine, Institutional Views Diverge**

Despite short-term pressure, medium-to-long-term bullish sentiment persists in the market. Goldman Sachs' commodities team noted a sharp rise in demand for gold call options, with global macro policy hedging demand forming a price amplifier. JPMorgan forecasts an average gold price of approximately $5,243 in 2026. TD Securities' global head of commodities strategy, Bart Melek, warned that energy prices pushing up inflation raises the probability of rate hikes, making it premature to target higher prices at this stage. Additionally, US Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion, along with ongoing sovereign debt issues in multiple countries, continues to underpin gold's safe-haven demand.

**Technical Levels Focus on Key Support**

From a technical perspective, gold broke above the 200-day moving average last week, a key support level widely viewed by analysts as a bullish signal. The current pullback near historical highs sees short-term support around the $4,600 level. If the upcoming PCE data and the Fed Chair's remarks release more dovish signals, gold could regain its upward momentum; conversely, if policy signals remain hawkish, gold may seek further downside support.