Gold: Upside Asymmetry Widening Ahead of Next Week – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek noted that gold and the broader precious metals complex are trading in a higher range, a pattern that could trigger a new round of CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) buying, leaving gold prices exhibiting widening upside asymmetry into next week. As of press time, spot gold was at $4,582.96 per ounce.

**Higher Range Could Trigger Systematic Buying**

Analysts believe that after the upward shift in the precious metals price center, the probability of trend-following funds reassessing their positioning direction has increased. If gold maintains its recent higher trading range, CTA strategies may shift from a wait-and-see stance to adding positions, providing additional support for short-term prices. This flow-driven upside risk currently outweighs the downside risk of similar magnitude in the prevailing market environment.

**Short-Term Pressure and Long-Term Bullishness Coexist**

TD Securities had previously flagged in a late-June research note that high oil prices and Federal Reserve tightening expectations could weigh on gold in the near term, with scope for a washout toward the $3,900 area. However, the firm also emphasized that this correction represents a cyclical pullback within a bull market, with the long-term structure remaining intact, and sees gold potentially reaching $5,300 in 2027. Current gold prices are already clearly above the $4,000 level seen in late June, indicating that the market has regained strength after digesting near-term bearish factors.

**Oil Prices Remain a Key Variable**

TD Securities' head of commodity research, Melek, previously stated that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven global crude inventories to historic lows, leaving Brent crude with scope to rise into the $90–$110 range. If higher oil prices rekindle inflation expectations, they could reinforce the case for the Fed to maintain restrictive policy, thereby raising the opportunity cost of holding gold on a phased basis. However, based on current gold price action, this bearish factor has yet to reverse the precious metals' firm upward trajectory.