Investor Warns Berkshire Can't Beat S&P 500, Turns to PayPal and Intel

Great Hill Capital founder Tom Hayes believes Berkshire Hathaway will fail to beat the S&P 500 over the next decade, declaring that the conglomerate's era of market outperformance is "over." The contrarian investor is making high-conviction turnaround bets on beaten-down stocks, including PayPal Holdings Inc. and Intel Corp.

The Bear Case for Berkshire Hathaway

Hayes delivered his blunt assessment on the Forged in America podcast when asked whether Berkshire Hathaway could beat the S&P 500 over the next 10 years. "No, it's over," Hayes said bluntly.

He attributed his argument to the "law of large numbers," the eventual absence of Warren Buffett, and significant capital allocation hurdles. Hayes noted that conglomerates have historically traded at a discount, predicting Berkshire could eventually face pressure to spin off its operating units to unlock potential value, as Buffett is no longer at the helm.

Shifting to Distressed Value Bets

Rather than holding cash-rich giants or chasing hot AI momentum, Hayes is focusing on high-quality businesses trading at distressed valuations.

He highlighted PayPal as a key high-conviction bet, citing its $6 billion in annual free cash flow, aggressive share buybacks, and unpriced growth drivers such as Venmo and its advertising platform.

Addressing another controversial pick, Hayes recalled buying Intel at $19 while critics mocked the legacy chipmaker. "I watch Tom talk about Intel, and people... it's like people are laughing," noted host Ravin Gandhi, before the stock rebounded sharply. Hayes emphasized that Intel's critical role in national security makes its turnaround thesis straightforward.

Cautious on AI Hyperscalers

Hayes warned retail investors against crowded trades in semiconductor and memory chip stocks, cautioning that hyped assets like Space Exploration Technologies Corp. and memory producers are "priced for perfection."

According to Hayes, "If they miss by 1%, these stocks don't fall 1%. They fall 70%." He stressed that the market's biggest opportunities exist where independent thinking intersects with short-term market dislocations.

How Are PYPL and INTC Performing in 2026?

PYPL stock is up 4.92% year-to-date, down 11.30% over the past year, and up 46.78% over the past six months. It closed Wednesday up 1.36% at $61.25 per share, and was down 0.16% in premarket trading Thursday. 's Edge stock ranking indicates PYPL maintains strong price trends over the long, short, and medium term, but has poor growth scores.

INTC stock has surged 151.49% year-to-date, up 266.65% over the past year, and up 107.98% over the past six months. It closed Wednesday down 4.02% at $92.80 per share, and was up 0.22% in premarket trading Thursday. 's Edge stock ranking indicates INTC maintains weak price trends in the short and medium term, with a weaker long-term trend.