JPMorgan cuts Albemarle price target to $140 from $160, maintains Neutral

Albemarle shares fell Tuesday after JPMorgan lowered its earnings estimates and price target for the lithium producer.

Analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas maintained a Neutral rating and cut the December 2027 price target to $140 from $160.

Falling lithium prices pressure Albemarle outlook

JPMorgan reduced its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 14.4% to $2.88 billion from $3.37 billion, and cut its 2027 estimate by 18.4% to $2.93 billion from $3.59 billion.

The firm also lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS estimate to $12.05 from $14.20, and its 2027 estimate to $11.65 from $15.35.

The revisions reflect weaker lithium prices. China's lithium carbonate averaged $24,810 per metric ton in Q2, but has averaged about $21,625 per metric ton so far in Q3.

JPMorgan now expects lithium prices to remain at the low end of the $20-plus per kilogram range, versus its prior forecast for mid-range prices. Each $1 per kilogram change in lithium prices could impact Albemarle's annual EBITDA by roughly $250 million.

Q3 profit expectations lowered

JPMorgan now expects Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $668 million, down from its prior estimate of $858 million, but still above the $226 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

The firm also expects lower quarterly lithium volumes and a weaker product mix.

Meanwhile, Albemarle's CGP3 plant in Greenbushes, Australia, faces delays following a fire in June. The plant restarted on August 1, but JPMorgan now expects it to reach full production only by Q1 2027.

JPMorgan said Albemarle's shares are trading near its price target, reflecting a fair valuation for a high-quality but volatile lithium producer.

Albemarle stock performance

Albemarle shares fell 5.16% to $134.21 on Tuesday following the data release.