Lyn Alden: Bitcoin Bottom Likely In, Fast Money Has Left

Prominent macro analyst Lyn Alden says Bitcoin's bottom has likely already formed, as she believes the fast money that would sell has already left the market.

Why Alden believes the bottom is in

Alden said on the Milk Road Crypto podcast Tuesday that bear markets typically end when sellers run out of reasons to sell, leaving mostly steadfast holders behind.

She doesn't expect an immediate rebound, as the market still needs a catalyst to attract new buying, but she noted the risk-reward profile is attractive for anyone with a multi-year horizon.

She pointed to AI-driven hacking as a bigger near-term risk than quantum computing, because cracking cryptography through new mathematical solutions could be faster and cheaper than building a working quantum computer.

She said neither risk has yet reached a level that would make her adjust her positions.

Why Alden thinks capital will rotate out of AI stocks

Alden sees signs that the AI trade is getting tired, though she stopped short of declaring AI has peaked. She noted the semiconductor sector's market cap jumped from roughly $2 trillion to nearly $20 trillion in a few years, a scale she believes makes it harder to replicate valuation multiples further.

"It doesn't necessarily have to be an AI crash," she said. "It just has to stop being the fastest horse."

She added that once investors stop expecting outsized returns, money in AI could start looking elsewhere, and Bitcoin trading near the low end of its valuation range makes it easier to triple than a mega-cap chip stock.

Why Alden calls the oil shock the biggest macro risk right now

Alden called the oil and refining crisis the single most important macro variable to watch, bigger than concerns over a private credit blowup.

Refinery damage from conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, combined with the time needed to build new refineries, has created unusually high crack spreads, even though crude prices haven't spiked as sharply as expected.

She is watching strategic petroleum reserve releases and any escalation in related conflicts as key signals, noting that economies typically don't break until oil prices are well above $150 per barrel.

Why Alden started a different kind of Bitcoin company

Alden also discussed Orange Juice, a company she co-founded that acquires cash-flow-generating businesses and backs them with Bitcoin reserves, distinguishing itself from pure Bitcoin treasury companies.

She said businesses with real cash flow won't be forced to sell Bitcoin during downturns the way heavily indebted treasury companies would, allowing the firm to buy more Bitcoin when it's cheap and acquire more businesses when deals look attractive.

When asked whether 2027 could be a bull year for Bitcoin, Alden said she leans toward higher prices, though she prefers multi-year forecasts over single-year calls.