Oil: Dark Shipping Provides Support, Prices to Drift Lower – Commerzbank

A report from Commerzbank's team of economists notes that despite lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East, a key shift has emerged on the crude supply side. The bank argues that "dark shipping" of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has brought Middle East crude exports nearly back to pre-conflict levels, which will gradually erode the high risk premium currently embedded in oil prices.

**Supply Recovery Path and Price Outlook**

The report's core view is that the supply disruptions the market had feared have not fully materialized. With more tankers maintaining shipments through covert means, actual crude supply has been better than expected. Based on this, the bank forecasts Brent crude futures will gradually retreat from recent highs near $104, targeting $85 by year-end. This contrasts with some market optimism; previously, Commerzbank's commodities team also warned that the recent drop in oil prices could be temporary, but the current assessment places greater emphasis on supply recovery squeezing the premium.

**Slower Retreat for Refined Products and Natural Gas**

The report also notes that not all energy products will decline in tandem. Diesel and European natural gas prices are expected to fall more slowly than crude. This structural divergence implies that the easing effect of energy costs on eurozone inflation will be delayed and uneven. The economists therefore project that eurozone inflation will remain elevated until mid-2027, adding uncertainty to the European Central Bank's monetary policy path.

**Market Focus Shifts**

The current oil market dynamic is shifting from "supply disruption risk" to "actual pace of supply recovery and demand outlook." If the "dark shipping" model persists and expands, the geopolitical premium in oil prices could fade faster. However, this non-transparent transport method itself introduces new uncertainties, and any related event could trigger sharp short-term price volatility.