Poland: Investment Rebound Supports Growth – ING

ING analyst Adam Antoniak expects the upcoming preliminary Q2 2026 GDP data for Poland to confirm year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The main driver of growth comes from a strong rebound in fixed investment, supported by the accelerated implementation of projects funded by EU cohesion funds and the Recovery and Resilience Facility.

**Investment Engine Fires Up, Consumption Momentum Fades**

Supported by public investment projects, Poland's gross capital formation is expected to improve significantly, becoming the highlight of the quarter's economic growth. However, private consumption, which was previously the main pillar of growth, is expected to see a slight slowdown. This is mainly due to two factors: first, rising fuel prices have directly pushed up household transportation costs; second, slower wage growth has weakened households' real purchasing power.

**Growth Structure Shifts, Domestic Demand Diverges**

This combination of one rising and one falling reflects a shift in Poland's economic growth engine from consumption-driven to investment-driven. Although the overall growth rate remains solid, the divergence in the domestic demand structure warrants attention. The sustainability of the investment rebound largely depends on the continued inflow of EU funds and the efficiency of implementing domestic projects. Meanwhile, weak signals from the consumption side may foreshadow pressure on future retail sales and services activity. The market will closely watch the specific increase in fixed asset investment in the final data to gauge the strength of this rebound.