Policy Moves and Hesitations Under July Economic Data

Guolian Minsheng Macro believes that July data shows increased uncertainty in economic stabilization, though marginal signs of stabilization are beginning to emerge. Industry exhibits a pattern of "external demand underpinning, structural divergence," with export delivery value maintaining high growth and high-tech industries contributing significantly. Investment momentum is under pressure, reflecting a lag in fiscal policy implementation, with funds "accumulated but not yet deployed," and stabilization is expected no earlier than September. Real estate's impact on investment is deepening, and the effect of easing demand-side policies in first-tier cities awaits testing during the "golden September and silver October" period. Consumption recovery shows a pattern of "stable services, weak goods," with policy focus shifting toward medium- and long-term mechanism building.