Serenity Questions Sivers' Strategy: Should Focus on US Investors or Valuation Ceiling Persists

On August 29, "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity published a post questioning Sivers Photonics' (SIVE) development strategy, noting that the company still devotes significant effort to local communication and private fundraising in Sweden rather than courting US investors. Serenity stated that Swedish investors focus more on "how to stop the bleeding," "why private clients cannot be disclosed," and "why the focus is on transceivers" during discussions, causing roughly one-third of conference call time to be spent explaining the business pipeline and wording rather than discussing future growth potential.

Serenity pointed out that US analysts focus more on wafer fab capacity allocation, ASP increases during supply bottlenecks and operating leverage, and how much revenue these capacities can generate. They further examine NPO/CPO, pluggable optical modules, downstream end customers, and the expected ramp-up opportunities for CPO players like Ayar in 2028. He warned that if Sivers continues to prioritize the Swedish market, its valuation will become increasingly influenced by Swedish market investment logic, and suggested the company should better demonstrate to US investors its economic value and potential growth opportunities amid the CW laser supply bottleneck.

[TechFlow]