Silver Approaches $70, but Warsh Could Cool the Rally

Silver extended its rally on Thursday, trading near $70.26 with a daily gain of about 2.7%, as it pushed toward the upper end of the range that has capped prices this week. Investor attention has now shifted to the Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's remarks are seen as the key variable for near-term direction.

**The Battle at the $70 Level**

Silver has tested the $70 mark for three consecutive sessions but has failed to secure a breakout, underscoring strong resistance at that level. On the technical front, a decisive close above $70 would open the door for further upside, with the next target near $80. Conversely, if the breakout fails, the risk of a short-term pullback is building. Immediate support sits at $66.50, and a break below that could expose the 20-day moving average.

**Warsh's Speech Could Trigger Volatility**

Market sensitivity to Warsh's rhetoric has precedent. JPMorgan analysts noted that when former President Trump announced Warsh as his nominee for Fed chair, silver plunged 27% in a single session, with gold falling 10% in tandem. In the current context, if Warsh emphasizes inflation risks and keeps rate-hike options on the table at Jackson Hole, the dollar could strengthen, pushing silver off its recent highs. However, if he signals a clearer path toward easing, the dollar and Treasury yields could come under pressure, providing a fresh tailwind for silver.

**Structural Support Remains Intact**

Despite near-term policy uncertainty, some analysts argue that structural drivers continue to underpin silver. The metal has rebounded from around $55 to just under $70 over the past month, a gain of more than 18%, reflecting improved bullish sentiment. That said, as of this writing, market pricing for the Fed's policy trajectory this year remains highly fluid, and silver's sensitivity to rate expectations is greater than that of most other assets, leaving room for sharp swings in the sessions ahead.